Friday, 4 June 2021

Super Rugby tipping panel Week 16: Try stopping the frontrunning Hairy Man

I don’t know if you’ve all noticed this out there in tipping land, but we’re currently in the presence of greatness.

You see, all very quietly on the far left-hand side of the panel sits a hirsute South African-American. You know him as the Roarer with beautiful prose, of engaging long reads about Springbok passion and with a borderline inappropriate man-crush on Pieter-Steph du Toit.

We just know him as the rotten sod who just can’t stop being right about rugby.

Over the last five rounds the Hairy Man has amassed 19 correct tips from 20 games. Even better, he’s 17 from 17 over the last four rounds and is yet to trip up in Trans-Tasman.

He can simply do no wrong, and with his tipping record now firmly in the spotlight, all the pressure is on to keep it going. I mean, imagine getting one wrong just as people realised how good you’re going.

In other news, the Sure Thing is back, the Blues still suck, and so again does tipping!

Last week
Harry and Dan: 5;
Digger and the Crowd: 4; and
Geoff and Brett: 3.

Overall
Harry and Dan: 47;
the Crowd: 44;
Geoff: 43;
Digger: 40; and
Brett: 37.

Harry

Crusaders, Blues, Highlanders, Brumbies, Chiefs

Having clawed my way from the depths to the top of the table, I face a tricky round with the confidence of Digger, the humility of Geoff, the serenity of Dan and the cheek of Brett.

A Force match against Crusaders in Christchurch seems a mismatch – a tough little terrier going into the lair of a grey wolf pack. Saders.

My favourite Australian team, the Reds, host my Kiwi team of choice, the Blues, for the little-known Stendhal Cup. Blues by a few, but only a few.

The Waratahs will not solve the mystery of winning in Dunedin, but nor will the Hurricanes unlock the keys to winning in Canberra.

The chastened Chiefs will rebound and dunk on the Rebels.

Sure thing
Damian McKenzie’s hair is the source of his disequilibrium.

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(Photo by Kai Schwoerer/Getty Images)

Dan

Crusaders, Blues, Highlanders, Brumbies, Chiefs

Three of this weekend’s encounters are straightforward matters. The Force don’t have anywhere near enough points in them to spring a surprise over the Crusaders, nor do the Rebels to topple the Chiefs, even though the hosts will be missing their main attacking fulcrum. The Waratahs, meanwhile, have the opposite issue: they’ll put a few tries past the Landers but concede far more in return.

The remaining two fixtures could go either way. The Reds will be buoyed by breaking their competition duck last week, but without Fraser McReight and Seru Uru coming off the bench I’m not sure they’ve picked their best possible side.

The Blues, meanwhile, have the pack to nullify – or at least break even against – the Queensland scrum and the attacking talent out wide to make the most of that advantage.

In Canberra, it just feels time for a Brumbies win. Their gruelling road trip is at an end, and they’ve shown they can match it in bursts with New Zealand’s best sides. At home, they’ll manage that for the full 80 and grab their first victory of the campaign.

Sure thing
A clear red card will be issued, and everyone will nod their heads in agreement without any complaints. Not this week, of course, but eventually.

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(Photo by Dave Rowland/Getty Images)

Digger

Crusaders, Blues, Highlanders, Hurricanrs, Chiefs

Unfortunately, it would appear the Force in Perth and the Force away from Perth are two completely separate entities, I am sure they will front up with a solid showing, but the Crusaders at home should be too good.

The Reds have shown they are up to the challenge this week, and it is going to be a significant challenge for the Blues in Brisbane, but I cannot shake off that second half from Townsville and will tentatively pick the Blues, who have shown good composure through their 80-minute performances in TT.

In what is clearly the match of the round, the Hurricanes have it all to do in Canberra. I fully expect the Brumbies to be much better at home, but ya know, Canes by plenty simply because they have to.

And the Rebels may just have a shot here against the Chiefs, but I am picking they might be a bit sore after last weekend, so they will bounce back, while the Highlanders should get it done over an ever-improving Waratahs outfit.

Sure thing
I fully expect a few extra balls thrown onto the field in Canberra on Saturday night from an overzealous sideline commentator in a hopeless bid to slow the game down.

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(Photo by Dianne Manson/Getty Images)

Geoff

Crusaders, Blues, Highlanders, Hurricanes, Chiefs

Even at below full strength the Crusaders have the Force well covered. The match of the round comes early this week, with the Blues a more conventional match-up for the Reds, who have had their hands full defensively over the last fortnight.

This should be a great contest, but I like how the Blues are fully focused on making up for the disappointment of missing the Super Rugby Aotearoa final.

Leading into the competition, it never really felt that the Highlanders were good enough to win all five matches. But are the Waratahs the side to prove that point? Hard to be confident.

After a month on the road, the Brumbies will be better for being at home. Much better. And the Canes are due to throw in a wobbly one. But it’s a coin toss to the visitors.

There’s no reason why the Rebels won’t keep improving, particularly if Jordan Uelese remembers to engage his brain this week. But that’s not enough to tip them against the Chiefs, who will test them with their speed and agility on the counter.

Sure thing
Extended lockdown in Melbourne is wreaking havoc. There are only so many times you can rewatch John Cena apologise for calling Taiwan a country just to avoid the politicians and public servants. We need more rugby to fill in our days. Make this a double round!

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(Photo by Mark Tantrum/Getty Images)

Brett

Crusaders, Reds, Highlanders, Brumbies, Chiefs

Well, there’s another tipping season blown. Like the rest of them, it will soon be chargrilled until it’s got a darker side than Darth Vader before being tossed aside and discarded like unwanted TV content at a sports network.

This week the Force will find out firsthand just how good the Crusaders depth is, as tackle bag holders, assistant coaches and possibly even some actual tackle bags show skill sets to die for.

Somehow I’m the only one to pick the Reds, but I look it a completely different way: I’m the only one who won’t be disappointed after giving the Blues the benefit of considerable doubt.

Waratahs games this series have so far comprised 17 tries, ten tries and 11 tries, and I genuinely think we’ll see another number within that range on Saturday. Of course how many of them the Highlanders score will come down to the Waratahs’ attitude in defence, which sadly has been absent like a few senior names this season.

The Hurricanes suddenly find themselves staring pressure in the face for the first time in a good while, and they’re nervous about it, because they still know themselves they can be a bit flaky. And now they face a wounded Brumbies looking at five consecutive losses for the first time since 2018 and only the second time in a decade.

Oh, and winter has arrived in Canberra, let me tell you. And winter in Canberra might be enough of a reason for the Chiefs to win in Hamilton too, come to think of it.

Sure thing
Poor old Nic Berry is merely running the line in Brisbane this weekend, but by the end of it he’ll be solely responsible for forward passes in Christchurch, scrum penalties in Dunedin, high tackles in Hamilton and winter in Canberra.

TT-4 Harry Brett Dan Digger Geoff The Crowd
CRU v FOR CRU CRU CRU CRU CRU ?
RED v BLU BLU RED BLU BLU BLU ?
HIG v WAR HIG HIG HIG HIG HIG ?
BRU v HUR BRU BRU BRU HUR HUR ?
CHI v REB CHI CHI CHI CHI CHI ?
Last week 5 3 5 4 3 4
Overall 47 37 47 40 43 44

Get your votes in now – the Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday afternoon AEST.

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Original source: https://www.theroar.com.au/2021/06/03/super-rugby-tipping-panel-week-16-try-stopping-the-frontrunning-hairy-man/

https://therugbystore.com.au/super-rugby-tipping-panel-week-16-try-stopping-the-frontrunning-hairy-man/

England rugby: Eddie Jones wants 'fresh, energetic players' for 2023 World Cup

England head coach Eddie Jones is looking to unearth some "fresh, energetic, enthusiastic players who want to take on the world" this summer.

Original source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/57335873

https://therugbystore.com.au/england-rugby-eddie-jones-wants-fresh-energetic-players-for-2023-world-cup/

Thursday, 3 June 2021

Why there are more Townsville twists and turns to come for the Reds in Super Rugby Trans-Tasman

The immediate post-match interview with a soccer manager in the UK is a hot-house of sporting cliches.

In an exciting game, there is “a lot of end-to-end stuff”, if a player has a bad patch he expects “the hair-dryer treatment” after the game. A surprising loss is framed as “there are no easy games at this level”, while an unexpected shift in momentum translates to “it was a game of two halves”.

They even speak in a curious present tense about a past which can no longer be changed – “he’s hit it with his left foot and it’s curled into the top corner”. It is as if they are still reliving the game in an endless, purgatorial loop. As the comedian Michael McIntyre once pointed out, everything happens to football managers “at the end of the day” – even if it happened first thing in the morning.

Whenever you hear the interviewee slip into soccer vernacular, it is the time to switch off. You can kiss any further value to the commentary goodbye after that.

An entirely genuine game of two halves did occur between the Reds and the Chiefs in Saturday’s Trans-Tasman encounter in Townsville. For once, the cliche was spot on.

The Reds won the first half 33-3. The Chiefs won the second just as decisively, 31-7. With 13 or 14 Chiefs on the field the score was 26-3 to Queensland, but with the Mooloo men restored to a full complement it was turned on its head: 14-31 to the visitors.

The basic stats tell the same see-saw story, with the Chiefs subsisting on a beggar’s ration of ball in the first half – sub 30 per cent in both territory and possession – then coming back to dominate the second period and shut the Reds out of the game.

It can be difficult to evaluate games like this. Do you attach more importance to the early lead accumulated against an understrength opponent (“we took our foot off the pedal”), or to the comeback (“we were caught napping at the start”)? Pick your poison.

Although Rugby Australia and the promoters of the Trans-Tasman competition will be letting out a mighty sigh of relief after events in Townsville, Brad Thorn and his Reds will be much more wary after the shine of their first win wears off. Queensland have conceded an average of over 44 points and seven tries per game in their three outings so far – and two of those have been at home.

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Brad Thorn. (Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)

The Reds can certainly find the tryline, but they are unable to stop New Zealand teams scoring against them. Much of the reason for this is Queensland’s dependence on the kicking game: the Reds kicked the ball on 29 occasions in Townsville, 12 times more than their opponents. Despite spending 30 minutes with only 13 or 14 men on the field, the visitors made more runs, passes and offloads than the home team.

The Reds like to scrum, and their tight forwards are built for the job, but they only get an average of five tackles per game out of two positions in the front row, at a completion rate of 57 per cent. This is a big part of the explanation why the emphasis on the kicking game produces uneven results.

The kicking strategy has to be right, but so does the chase. Over the weekend, the Reds started the game accurately on both counts. Their exits were tight:

Harry Wilson cuts a nice angle between two Chiefs forwards to make the initial break all the way up to the 40-metre line, and the Reds immediately insert their primary kicker, Bryce Hegarty, at first receiver to get maximum length on the following kick. No kick return, no scoring comeback.

Queensland held onto this position within the Chiefs’ 22 long enough to create the first try of the game three minutes later. That is what a good exit can do for you.

The Reds continued to kick on their own terms in the first period:

This time a drive straight from the kick-off takes play up towards halfway, and Hegarty is once again the main focus of the kicking game, with a long diagonal giving Suliasi Vunivalu a decent shot at taking man and ball together.

Like their exit strategy, the Reds’ first half chase was good:

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There is excellent connectivity and numbers, with no more than five metres separating the point chase and hindmost defender. That forces a kick back in the second example, and leaves Damian McKenzie with nowhere to go in the first.

The exit strategy was, of course, helped greatly by the absence of two important components of the Chiefs backfield, Chase Tiatia and McKenzie, for half an hour.

Both cards by Nic Berry were brave and fully justified:

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Townsville-2-755x425.jpg

There is no prospect of Chase Tiatia catching the ball on the end of his fingers, so the deliberate knock-on deserves a yellow card. Likewise, McKenzie would have been fully aware of the current refereeing protocol about direct contact to the head in the tackle. He would have known his fate in advance, even if his captain Brad Weber looked shocked.

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It is a melodramatic cliche of a grimace of which any soccer player would be proud.

Of much greater concern for the Reds was the ease with which their defence was broken down by a Chiefs attack lacking its main creative influence in the second period.

Even with Kaleb Trask as the sole playmaker, they were able to start making demands of the Queensland tight forwards on defence – demands they could not meet:

Townsville-6-755x425.jpg

These two phases occurred within the same sequence of play. In both cases, a simple cut-out pass in midfield takes the Queensland tight forwards out of the game.

In the first instance, Brandon Paenga-Amosa falls into the tackle unnecessarily and Taniela Tupou is still struggling to realign when Tiatia makes the mini-break in between him and Isaac Henry. In the second, Harry Wilson runs past both Paenga-Amosa and Dane Zander to (at least) challenge Pita Gus Sowakula in the corner.

Another flat cut-out pass to take out the key defender, Wilson, and leave Zander slow on the wrap-around to the far side; another cut by Tiatia into the inviting space between Henry and Angus Scott-Young. That sets the scene for the try-scoring phase, with only Wilson showing any animation at all in defence.

The final nail occurred only one minute from time:

Luckily for the Reds, it was just a nail on which to hang a picture about the ability of their tight forwards, not one hammered into their coffin.

Summary
If Brad Thorn was a soccer manager in the UK, he would probably have said something along the lines of, “It was a game of two halves, wasn’t it? We scored a few early doors but struggled to shut up shop in the second half. We should have parked the bus.”.

In fact, he came pretty close anyway.

“Hats off to the Chiefs, they kept plugging away and got to within a try of winning the game,” he said.

“I felt like the guys who started the game today did a heck of a job and played some good footy.

“I wasn’t happy with my finishers tonight.

“The job is to come on and add, and body language and where they were at, they took the foot off the throat… That’s footy and we’ll move on.”

Behind closed doors, he will probably be more concerned about the 14-31 scoreline when both teams were at full strength, rather than rejoicing in the points accumulated during their numerical advantage.

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Filipo Daugunu. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)

The tight forwards at the Reds are built to scrum, and they got pay from the set-piece early on – especially after the Chiefs had mystifyingly left the mountainous Samisoni Taukei’aho out of their starting front row in favour of Brad Slater. Taukei’aho is a Samson of the scrum indeed.

During the first half, the exit strategy and kick-chase held together well. But as the second period wore on, the Queensland tight forwards wore down like a clockwork toy, and their defence ended up looking no better than it had against the Crusaders right from the start.

The defensive work rate of their second row has shown a big upswing in the Trans-Tasman, but the front row makes an average of only seven tackles per man per game, and their completion percentage is way, way down at 72 per cent.

To give that figure some context, the Chiefs average ten tackles per man per game at a completion rate of 89 per cent. The Crusaders are even higher, with 12.5 tackles at 86 per cent. With the amount of ball that Queensland kick away, they cannot afford this kind of outcome.

Will Australia’s top provincial team end the Trans-Tasman tournament feeling over the moon, or as sick as a parrot? There are more twists and turns to come in the road from Townsville – but for now, a win is a win, and it’s a results-driven business.

Original source: https://www.theroar.com.au/2021/06/02/why-there-are-more-townsville-twists-and-turns-to-come-for-the-reds-in-super-rugby-trans-tasman/

https://therugbystore.com.au/why-there-are-more-townsville-twists-and-turns-to-come-for-the-reds-in-super-rugby-trans-tasman/

Wednesday, 2 June 2021

Scotland: Seventeen uncapped players in squad for summer Tests

Scotland include 17 uncapped players in a 37-man squad for Test matches against England A, Romania and Georgia this summer.

Original source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/57318490

https://therugbystore.com.au/scotland-seventeen-uncapped-players-in-squad-for-summer-tests/

Premier 15s final: Harlequins' Shaunagh Brown calls out women's rugby doubters

Harlequins prop Shaunagh Brown calls out those who say "women's rugby is not good enough" after her side beat Saracens to win a first Premier 15s title in a thrilling Kingsholm final.

Original source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/57302198

https://therugbystore.com.au/premier-15s-final-harlequins-shaunagh-brown-calls-out-womens-rugby-doubters/

The Brumbies have a perception issue only they can address

It was the moment the Brumbies had to realise they have a problem.

No matter how much work they’d been doing in the week leading up to the match with the Blues, trying to find the improvements they desperately needed to spark their trans-Tasman campaign, it had to have dawned on them that something bigger was an issue.

Fourteen minutes in, having pinched a Blues lineout throw on halfway just a minute earlier, the Brumbies had a lineout throw roughly 30 metres out from their line on the south-western corner of Eden Park.

Lock Darcy Swain jumped at number four in a five-man set-up, lifted quickly and cleanly by Allan Ala’alatoa behind him and ex-Western Force backrower Henry Stowers in front. Swain took the somewhat-contested ball at the top and was looking to initiate transfer of the ball to Tom Cusack as he came back to earth.

Simultaneously as Swain’s feet hit the ground, the lifters and Nick Frost had already formed the maul around Cusack as he took the ball cleanly. The maul edged forward about five metres, and just as hooker Connal McInerney arrived to join behind Cusack, referee Damon Murphy let rip with the whistle.

The Brumbies forwards all then switched their faces to stunned, as they realised Murphy was pointing to the Blues.

“Long-arm transfer. You must stay connected,” he said, pointing to one of the Brumbies forwards. “Stay connected to the lifter,” he added.

Cue silence in the Sky Sport commentary box.

“I have no idea what that means,” the special comments man said, a former Blues forward whose name escapes me. Not James Parsons, the other bloke.

“I don’t think Darcy Swain does either, the way he’s shaking his head,” lead commentator Rikki Swannell added. “Technical penalty to the Blues.”

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Darcy Swain. (Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)

Dan McKellar’s face gave nothing away as they cut to the shot of the coaches box, while beside him, Laurie Fisher’s ever-present Brumbies bucket hat did just enough to cover his eyes as his face remains motionless.

The Brumbies walked back the required ten metres, and Swain could be seen saying something to his teammates as he shook his head again.

“Long-arm transfer,” Murphy said again.

Otere Black kicked to the corner, Kurt Eklund found Josh Goodhue in the middle of the Blues maul, they drove forward a few metres, and Eklund got his hands on the ball before barging over for the first try of the match.

Except Goodhue fluffed his transfer even worse than Swain did. As the Blues’ forwards formed the maul around him, he was still coming down, and so his arms carrying the ball ended up on top of the maul.

When Eklund took the ball from Goodhue, he wasn’t in any way attached to anybody in the maul.

If Swain was rightly pinged for the long-arm transfer – and I’ll get onto this – then Goodhue’s was even worse.

Murphy didn’t see it that way, obviously, and worked his way into position to award the try as soon as Eklund got the ball down with Dalton Papali’i driving behind him.

But what is a long-arm transfer?

Well, for one, it doesn’t actually exist in the Laws of Rugby as a thing. There’s no mention of it in Law 16 around the maul, and there’s no mention of it in Law 18 around the lineout, either.

But it did become a thing in January 2016 in the southern hemisphere, and you will find it a law application guideline around the maul.

“The ball can be moved backwards hand-to-hand once the maul has formed. A player is not allowed to move/slide backwards in the maul when the player is in possession of the ball and the ripper needs to stay in contact with the jumper until they have transferred the ball.”

The key words here are “…and the ripper needs to stay in contact with the jumper until they have transferred the ball,” and with examples in the World Rugby guideline, there are references to long placements and transfers.

So even though Murphy told Tom Cusack, I presume, “stay connected to the lifter,” I think he actually meant that Cusack as the ripper must stay bound to Swain. And looking back over it several times while putting this together, I do think he got it right.

The only problem being that he then very clearly missed Goodhue doing exactly the same thing much more visibly only a minute later.

But this isn’t about refereeing consistency – that’s a whole other chapter, never mind a single column on a Tuesday.

No, this is more that the Brumbies have probably been doing this same thing for some time now, and one way or the other, it had been brought to Damon Murphy’s attention.

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Brumbies coach Dan McKellar. (Photo by Kai Schwoerer/Getty Images)

And whether that was the Blues having a pre-game chat, or whether the referees themselves identified it during reviews as a possible infringement to look out for, or even if it was opposing coaches raising the matter in weeks previous, none of that matters.

What matters is that Murphy had it in his mind to look for it, and suddenly he recognised it.

Rewatching the few lineouts immediately preceding the infringement, there’s a pattern too.

In the 13th minute, in pinching the Blues’ lineout, Swain offloaded to Cusack with extended arms all while he was still in the air.

In the 11th minute, Frost won a five-metre attacking lineout cleanly, but let the maul form around him before transferring the ball underneath bodies as McInerney arrived.

A minute before that, Swain won another attacking lineout around twenty metres out, and on review he’s guilty of a long-arm transfer to Cusack again, who like Eklund really didn’t look like he bound to either Swain as the jumper, or to the forming maul.

I’m not going to profess to know what goes through a referee’s mind, but it’s entirely plausible that what Damon Murphy saw in the tenth minute gave him the reminder to keep an eye out for what he then penalised four minutes later. And didn’t penalise again for the rest of the match, for what it’s worth.

Essentially, and even if technically they are in breach of the 2016 guideline, the Brumbies are more guilty of presenting the wrong picture to the referee. And this is where they can address the perceptions around the way they play.

The perception is clearly there. In Super Rugby AU, the Brumbies had the best lineout success rate, but were also the most penalised of the five Australian sides. Again, in Super Rugby Trans-Tasman, the Brumbies have the best lineout success rate, though both they and the Blues are in the bottom half of teams for penalties conceded.

In AU, Swain and Cadeyrn Neville were in the top five most penalised players in the competition.

The Brumbies did enjoy some scrum success against the Blues on the weekend, and even though Scott Sio was the most penalised player in Trans-Tasman coming into Round 3, their front row and scrum coach Dan Palmer have been working overtime in recent weeks to change the picture they’re presenting.

Up to the point they kicked off in the 39th minute and found themselves chasing – but not tackling – Finlay Christie for 70 metres, they were controlling this game well. Their second half and one minute let down what had been a strong showing to that point.

They now have a chance with two home games to save some face in Super Rugby Trans-Tasman, but the easiest way they can do that is by helping themselves.

They can’t control how referees perceive their actions, but they can control the picture they put forward for perception and refereeing judgement.

Original source: https://www.theroar.com.au/2021/06/01/the-brumbies-have-a-perception-issue-only-they-can-address/

https://therugbystore.com.au/the-brumbies-have-a-perception-issue-only-they-can-address/